Commodity Response to Jobs Report and Barry Sternlicht on Bloomberg

Soberlook.com had a thorough review of price movements on September 7, including the notable divergence between the 30 and 10 year treasury responses and makes me consider whether ZB is the better short than ZN (the former has lower leverage).

 

Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital was interviewed on Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/barry-sternlicht-on-real-estate-investing-election-Kw6TOw3YQAijgqtjMbV6aA.html

Just got a construction loan on a multifamily property at 2.5%.  You have to have big margins of safety, looking for high cash yields up front.  Investments being made with a notion of what interest rates will be in years (Blackstone BLK 14.19 is not a real estate bet but an interest rate bet), but Fed commitment to lower rates reduces the urgency to invest now.   Toll Brothers getting “free money.”   (TOL at 33 now) Over 10 billion in loans for Starwood itself now and 1000 lenders.  Fed definitely inducing bad behavior, people including his mom chasing yield.

Just bought a billion dollars of malls.  “Death of the mall greatly exaggerated”  Hard goods already migrated to the web.  Clothing less so?  Taxing the internet is coming, congress will “wake up.” Have to vote for Mitt.

NB: I’ve bought Blackstone in the past; maybe a great investment but you must be  true believer to go through the separate tax paperwork

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