The SPX topping out?

Doug Kass at theStreet.com put up two contrasting files showing specific points where lows in the VIX signaled forthcoming drops in the SPX, five times in the last two years.  He was on CNBC with the same message two weeks ago — the market effectively unchanged since then.

Bespoke Investment Group has a compelling chart that the gains of late in large caps have been mostly low volume gains which is technically ominous.

Some “Triple Top” talk evidence seems specious to me — Business Insider cites this as a possible “Triple Top”:

chart of the day, s&p 500 three spikes, august 2012

But had been warning about the same thing in September 2011

s&p futures head and shoulders

In short the S&P does appear posed to this rube technician at a decisive moment which possibly suggests a downward bias, that is also seasonal and will fluctuate with the election.  It is notionally cheap but facing huge European headwinds putting the smaller cap Russells in the unusual position of being a slightly better equity safe haven.  Few ports would be safe in that storm however.

Apple (AAPL) is 5% of the S&P and 13% of the NASDAQ 100 Capitalization-weighted indexes and so a meaningful short term up move (likely) in this one name could pull the entire index higher.

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