ZC on precipice and LULU

Back from Greece and looking to fire up the blog:  ahead on short ZC position from 760; about to break through 735 which has been the repeated low of the last month:

Prior to the summer run up Corn was in the 550s.  I have no idea if it can rapidly return there but feel this is a decently safe position to enter into an extension of the position.  I did the same on the LULU short, less for technical reasons than increasing fundamental conviction at 68:

I’m down on the effective ZNGA long position (by shorting Jan 13 & 14 puts at 3 & 2.5; the premiums got most of the move down and I also feel there isn’t much further move down there but perhaps could have waited a bit longer to enter the position: now trading underneath net asset value makes the risk minimal I think.

 

 

LULU to become a Downward Facing Dog?

I am looking into where a short short entry point is on Lululemon Athletica (LULU, $77).  There is motivation aplenty.  Competition from Gap’s Athleta?  Patents on pants?  Rising inventory?  Color Bleeding?  Who is John Galt?  Landmark Forum participation (see the correction obviously added after some legal notice)? One can over-react to errata but I’ll hone in on other details the website has spacing errors after periods:

 The training program was such a success that the lululemon people have created a life for themselves that most people could only dream of.lululemon is a company where dreams come to fruition.

Notifications about particular stores include information that the Walnut Creek, California store will in fact be open on July 4th.  Congratulations.  For a company whose prime value is brand identity these scratches on the fender do reduce the value of the car.

Chart forLululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)

A small position probably could be had now with a stop over the spring highs…will look more closely in following days.  I feel bad to have missed the (first big?) decline in Deckers DECK 45, whose story has some eerie parallels with LULU

Chart forDeckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)

LULU is a sloppy company, poorly managed, riding a fashion craze and about to hit severe price competition.  SHORT!  Namaste.

POSITION UPDATE: Soybeans vindicated today, only commodities position now.  Bought some ZNGA outright as it heads into a ferocious short squeeze.  Out of ANF.

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