Nov 27 2013 Positions & Quick Notes on Future ones

* Successfully shorted ZN last few days, lowered the position size for unusual time period.  Long March Wheat at 662.75, short Twitter at 41.  The wheat has a nice risk-reward and I’ve put in a stop under the lows.

* Really liked Stanley Druckenmiller’s interview on Bloomberg including comments on what great managers are for, and that Japan’s Nov-May seasonal rise is one of the most reliable in the world (including 40k to 7k overall decline, you’d still have made money.)  Suggestion of shorting IBM given cloud computing challenge and their use of capital is a compelling idea that deserves more investigation (the low p/e as is makes me wonder about risk-reward versus other short possibilities.)  Declining free cash flow argument works even better against NFLX for example.  The Amazon comments – that AWS could be half of revenue soon also merit further examination.

* Looking closely at NFLX, HLF, TSLA, P, LNKD on top of TWTR as shorts.

Notable Barron’s Predictions September 1

The market strategist survey was as usual effectively worthless with most of the analysts predicting a market very close to where we are today, Treasury bills at 1.75 give or take, and without decisive opinions about whether the “fiscal cliff” will be avoided.  Only Goldman Sachs stood out with an end of year S&P prediction of 1250.

Steven Auth of Federated recommended CAT at 84.47, QCOM at 61.20 and Daimler DDAIF at 48.85 (“luxury goods”).  Robert Doll of Blackrock recommended Chevron CVX @ 110.93, ConocoPhillips COP at 56.11, and UnitedHealth UNH at 54.69, Adam Parker of Morgan Stanley concurred on Chevron, Bristol Myers BMY at 32.8, AmerisourceBergen ABC at 38.1

I like the CAT call — 8 p/e also favorably ranked at Valueline — and this is on my watchlist after any market drop but low priced enough perhaps just to jump in.  Continue reading

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