Nov 27 2013 Positions & Quick Notes on Future ones

* Successfully shorted ZN last few days, lowered the position size for unusual time period.  Long March Wheat at 662.75, short Twitter at 41.  The wheat has a nice risk-reward and I’ve put in a stop under the lows.

* Really liked Stanley Druckenmiller’s interview on Bloomberg including comments on what great managers are for, and that Japan’s Nov-May seasonal rise is one of the most reliable in the world (including 40k to 7k overall decline, you’d still have made money.)  Suggestion of shorting IBM given cloud computing challenge and their use of capital is a compelling idea that deserves more investigation (the low p/e as is makes me wonder about risk-reward versus other short possibilities.)  Declining free cash flow argument works even better against NFLX for example.  The Amazon comments – that AWS could be half of revenue soon also merit further examination.

* Looking closely at NFLX, HLF, TSLA, P, LNKD on top of TWTR as shorts.

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