Grain Complex and Positions August 29 Evening

There have been volitile moves since Sunday night — Apple was a whole lot of anticipation for a four point loss (in 677 out 673) finding better opportunities to double down elsewhere and likewise got out of Gold breakeven.  Both of those I’ll return to at some point.

(small) Short position in ZN near the close at 133 ‘295 — I could immediately unwind this for reasons below but think there are a few points to be had after it spiked up then regressed today

I added to the anti grain position by shorting ZS; and traded it very poorly today, taking a loss and going long on a head fake surge up only to see that too reverse — I think I got obsessed with too very short term of movements, my classic error and again got short at 1714 – only to see it rise again but long term perspective within what really should be described as a range.  The evening movement taunts the highs, I set a stop loss at 1740 and will let it lie.  A stop there risks another tweak at the top of the range only to return lower but given the extreme weather conditions to move it higher risks too much of a loss; I could take a 1.5% total loss and willing to give 10 more points from the 1730 it is trading at in the evening :

I remain short ZW, profitably but moved down the stop loss in case the market turns want to lock in that profit: stop at 891 with the Dec contract at 879 now.

The grains are going to bounce around, there is Russian poli-agicultural risk but by in large this market looks headed down after several attempts to break out.  Here are the continuous month contracts of the three major grains:

If I get stopped out, unless the S&P breaks out over 1420, I will likely move straight into a short S&P trade which I think will be good after this week which is a typically seasonally strong one for stocks the effect of which may be magnified by any GOP poll bumps.

UPDATE 1:25 AM: evening moves up in both ZS & ZW are disturbing enough for me to monitor but I’m not freaked out; I fear evening thin volumes could touch my stops and I’m going to go ahead and move them up to 896.25 and 1746.25 respectively; these are losses far higher than I would like but I also want to avoid the worst case scenario of another whipsaw followed by the precipitous dive that I think is very possible and profitable.

Positions August 26 Sunday Evening

Short Dec ZW at 896

Long Dec GC at 1678

Long Sep ZN at 133 ‘180

The ZN position I will not be keeping for long; I believe the trade is asymmetric with any bad news from Europe driving it higher; stop at ‘140 which is just below lows earlier in evening.  Long term I want to be short ZN and may flip this position in short order.  ZW traded up, then flat, then up when trading opened at 6 pm eastern, pretty much following Soybeans which are breaking out but Wheat looks like it wants to go down.  Gold is a long and short term disposition that is a position right now.  Short wheat into a purportedly bullish ProFarmer report wasn’t too comfortable this weekend but news had been issued throughout the week.  Rains in the southern united states should bode well for a short Wheat position.  If Corn, Wheat and Soybeans all were breaking out definitely would go long.

Looking possibly to play Apple long and Las Vegas Sands short tomorrow.

UPDATE 1:15 am – indeed traded out of ZN at 133 ‘215 after it started drifting down from ‘240, a nice small gain and driven by Apple opening at 677- just at highs but only 7,000 shares traded.  More on Apple another time.  Not sure where to set a stop loss but not too worried about it.

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