Position Update August 30

Well as feared the Russians were coming, and wiped out my short grain position.  A pretty bad loss whose saving virtue was sticking to stop loss plan and indeed getting short the S&P at 1406 which I’m ahead on, and even going long — though a smaller number of contracts of soybeans at 1733 which is now up a solid 1%.

I added this morning to it at 1746 which knock wood appears to be the low of the morning and moved up a stop to 1736.xx.  This is an awfully tight stop but the soybean supply/demand situation is not as bearish as with wheat or even corn with murmurs of $25 soybeans.   They look really good right now, and the thesis is after all is to trade into breakouts and let it ride:

I have also added a small position in Live Cattle at 125.575.  Here is the six month chart.  Barron’s wrote about Live Cattle in late January and I’ve kept my eye on it since, with another brief small trade earlier, and appears to be poised for a robust technical formation (similar to Cotton right now at 77 which I may nibble in as well)

I feel comfortable even if just slightly ahead on soybeans & S&P but is this an internal trading signal that there is little consternation or just a false hope generated from relief after the surge in wheat and soybeans that knocked me for a loop?

On the stock side, large cap tech and ZNGA under 3 among others still looks insanely cheap but I am waiting for a downswing or the S&P at least to head back to 141x before putting on a position like that.

Positions August 26 Sunday Evening

Short Dec ZW at 896

Long Dec GC at 1678

Long Sep ZN at 133 ‘180

The ZN position I will not be keeping for long; I believe the trade is asymmetric with any bad news from Europe driving it higher; stop at ‘140 which is just below lows earlier in evening.  Long term I want to be short ZN and may flip this position in short order.  ZW traded up, then flat, then up when trading opened at 6 pm eastern, pretty much following Soybeans which are breaking out but Wheat looks like it wants to go down.  Gold is a long and short term disposition that is a position right now.  Short wheat into a purportedly bullish ProFarmer report wasn’t too comfortable this weekend but news had been issued throughout the week.  Rains in the southern united states should bode well for a short Wheat position.  If Corn, Wheat and Soybeans all were breaking out definitely would go long.

Looking possibly to play Apple long and Las Vegas Sands short tomorrow.

UPDATE 1:15 am – indeed traded out of ZN at 133 ‘215 after it started drifting down from ‘240, a nice small gain and driven by Apple opening at 677- just at highs but only 7,000 shares traded.  More on Apple another time.  Not sure where to set a stop loss but not too worried about it.

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